Tage der Biodiversität 2027

Climate and land use change are driving profound shifts in species distributions and reshaping community composition worldwide. The magnitude and direction of these responses are strongly mediated by species-specific traits. Butterflies, due to their high sensitivity to environmental variation and well-known ecology, represent an ideal model system to investigate these dynamics.

Here, we assess current and future patterns of butterfly diversity across the Western Palearctic and its major biogeographical regions by jointly considering climate change and land use and land cover dynamics over comparable time frames. We integrate species distribution models with species-specific performance, functional traits, and multiple biodiversity metrics to provide a comprehensive evaluation of potential responses to global change.

Our framework allows us to disentangle the relative contribution of climatic versus land use drivers and to identify trait-mediated responses shaping future assemblages. By combining taxonomic, functional, and potentially phylogenetic dimensions of diversity, we provide a more nuanced understanding of biodiversity change under multiple interacting pressures. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating both environmental drivers and species characteristics when predicting future biodiversity patterns and supports more robust conservation planning under ongoing global change.